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Science创刊125周年提出的125个关于未来科学的“天问”

时间:2005-07-03 20:53来源:Science 作者:bioguider 点击: 1714次

7月1日适逢Science创刊125周年,这期science提出的125个关于未来科学的“天问”,其中25个是最重要的问题,生命科学的问题是最多的。

美国《科学》杂志的主编唐纳德·肯尼迪与新闻主编科林·诺曼近日组织他们的员工完成了一项调查,他们列举了125个科学领域最有挑战性的问题,然后精选出了最难回答的25个科学之谜。据了解,这25个科学之谜刊登在7月1日出版的《科学》杂志125周年纪念专刊上。现在挑出其中10个是大家关注比较多的,它们分别是:
?? 1.宇宙是由什么构成的?
?? 近几个世纪以来,科学家们已经发现恒星和行星是由普通物质构成的,甚至于人类本身也是,并且宇宙中有5%的事物是由普通物质构成的,其余的都属于黑物质与暗能。什么是黑物质,什么是暗能,它们在哪里?科学家希望找到答案。
?? 2.生物的意识是怎么产生的?
?? 17世纪的时候,法国哲学家、数学家迪卡尔宣布人类的精神和肉体是完全分离的。他将对意识本性的争论留给了后代的哲学家。当今的科学家们开始挑战他的这种观念,一种观点认为意识来自肉体,来自大脑中的神经元组织。而人类对这些神经元组织的试验工作刚刚开始,要想结束这样的争辩还有待时日。
?? 3.人的寿命究竟有多长?
?? 近来,一些科学家通过对酵母、蠕虫、老鼠等动物延长寿命的试验已经确信,人类不久就可以轻松地活过百岁。但也有一些科学家认为人类寿命可能因为受到更多的限制而缩短。不论是否有这种可能,延长人类寿命的研究前景已经深深地影响了整个社会。到底人类能活多久呢?
4.地球靠什么运转?
?? 自具有革命性意义的板块构造理论问世以来,其理论已经深入人心。探测地球内部构造的科学家,通过使用复杂的工具,对矿物进行研究,通过计算机模拟等手段试图寻找地球运转的驱动力,但是迄今还没有一个令人满意的解释。
?? 5.我们是宇宙中惟一的生命吗?
?? 从数学概率的角度来说,应该不是。在我们的银河系就有数百亿颗恒星、星云,而在整个宇宙又有数十亿个银河系。就在我们的附近,科学家们已经发现了150颗恒星。总之,科学家们说宇宙很可能有许多适合智能生命进化的地方。现在最大的问题是,我们什么时候才能与这些生命接触。
?? 6.地球上的生命是怎样出现的,出现于何时?
?? 近来的一些试验表明地球上最早的生命形式可能是核糖核酸(RNA),不是今天所有生命都是必需的脱氧核糖核酸(DNA)和蛋白质。当一些科学家们聚集在实验室模拟生命起源的时候,其他的科学家们则致力于毫无生命气息的化学物质是怎样转化成地球上的原始生命DNA的。另外还有一些研究员想知道这些原始生命是从哪里来的,深海热熔岩液体中、潮汐池,还是隐藏在冰河中?或许火星微生物在40亿年前就被带到了地球上?
?? 7.艾滋病疫苗有效吗?
?? 研究员们把人类免疫缺陷性病毒(HIV)看作引起免疫缺陷综合病症(AIDS)的原因。自从那时开始,对于抑制艾滋病传染的疫苗研究就从没有间断过。但至今为止,人类还是没有找到一种对艾滋病完全有效的疫苗。
?? 8.世界将会变得有多热?
?? 在过去的一个世纪内,地球温度上升了0.6摄氏度,这直接导致了地球上由风暴、洪水、干旱等引起的各种天灾成倍增加。据统计,2000年发生的地球天灾数是1996年的两倍。科学家预测,在21世纪,这些灾难数将以6倍的比率增加。地球究竟会变得有多热?
?? 9.能代替石油的能源什么时候出现?
?? 目前,石油价格和人类对石油能源的需求都在不断地上涨,但是石油的探明储量是有限的,并且石油这一能源给地球环境带来的污染和影响也是日益突出。因此对于人类来说,用一种新的能源来代替石油已迫在眉睫。新的能源应是可持续的永久性能源,它不给地球环境增加负荷,能更加有效地利用成本。纳米科技的进步或许就是解决能源危机的一个答案。但是它能够及时出现以挽救枯竭的能源吗?
?? 10.马尔萨斯人口论会继续错下去吗?
?? 1798年,英国经济学家数学家托马斯·马尔萨斯指出农业呈代数级数增长(1,2,3,……),但人口呈几何级数增加(1,2,4……),这意味着饥饿和灾难并不遥远。可是两个世纪后,全球人口已经超过了60亿,并没有像马尔萨斯预测的那样会出现大崩溃的局面。人口统计学专家认为到2100年,地球上的人口将会达到100亿。自马尔萨斯提出人口论以来,人口的过分增长,一直对人类的命运、环境是一个巨大的威胁。一场即将来临的人口灾难可以避免吗?
??
THE QUESTIONS
The Top 25
 
  What Is the Universe Made Of?
  What is the Biological Basis of Consciousness?
  Why Do Humans Have So Few Genes?
  To What Extent Are Genetic Variation and Personal Health Linked?
  Can the Laws of Physics Be Unified?
  How Much Can Human Life Span Be Extended?
  What Controls Organ Regeneration?
  How Can a Skin Cell Become a Nerve Cell?
  How Does a Single Somatic Cell Become a Whole Plant?
  How Does Earth's Interior Work?
  Are We Alone in the Universe?
  How and Where Did Life on Earth Arise?
  What Determines Species Diversity?
  What Genetic Changes Made Us Uniquely Human?
  How Are Memories Stored and Retrieved?
  How Did Cooperative Behavior Evolve?
  How Will Big Pictures Emerge from a Sea of Biological Data?
  How Far Can We Push Chemical Self-Assembly?
  What Are the Limits of Conventional Computing?
  Can We Selectively Shut Off Immune Responses?
  Do Deeper Principles Underlie Quantum Uncertainty and Nonlocality?
  Is an Effective HIV Vaccine Feasible?
  How Hot Will the Greenhouse World Be?
  What Can Replace Cheap Oil -- and When?
  Will Malthus Continue to Be Wrong?


So Much More to Know …

[NextPage]


From the nature of the cosmos to the nature of societies, the following 100 questions span the sciences. Some are pieces of questions discussed above; others are big questions in their own right. Some will drive scientific inquiry for the next century; others may soon be answered. Many will undoubtedly spawn new questions.

Is ours the only universe?
A number of quantum theorists and cosmologists are trying to figure out whether our universe is part of a bigger "multiverse." But others suspect that this hard-to-test idea may be a question for philosophers.

What drove cosmic inflation?
In the first moments after the big bang, the universe blew up at an incredible rate. But what did the blowing? Measurements of the cosmic microwave background and other astrophysical observations are narrowing the possibilities.

When and how did the first stars and galaxies form?
The broad brush strokes are visible, but the fine details aren't. Data from satellites and ground-based telescopes may soon help pinpoint, among other particulars, when the first generation of stars burned off the hydrogen "fog" that filled the universe.

Where do ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays come from?
Above a certain energy, cosmic rays don't travel very far before being destroyed. So why are cosmic-ray hunters spotting such rays with no obvious source within our galaxy?

What powers quasars?
The mightiest energy fountains in the universe probably get their power from matter plunging into whirling supermassive black holes. But the details of what drives their jets remain anybody's guess.

What is the nature of black holes?
Relativistic mass crammed into a quantum-sized object? It's a recipe for disaster--and scientists are still trying to figure out the ingredients.

Why is there more matter than antimatter?
To a particle physicist, matter and antimatter are almost the same. Some subtle difference must explain why matter is common and antimatter rare.

Does the proton decay?
In a theory of everything, quarks (which make up protons) should somehow be convertible to leptons (such as electrons)--so catching a proton decaying into something else might reveal new laws of particle physics.

What is the nature of gravity?
It clashes with quantum theory. It doesn't fit in the Standard Model. Nobody has spotted the particle that is responsible for it. Newton's apple contain ned a whole can of worms.

Why is time different from other dimensions?
It took millennia for scientists to realize that time is a dimension, like the three spatial dimensions, and that time and space are inextricably linked. The equations make sense, but they don't satisfy those who ask why we perceive a "now" or why time seems to flow the way it does.

Are there smaller building blocks than quarks?
Atoms were "uncuttable." Then scientists discovered protons, neutrons, and other subatomic particles--which were, in turn, shown to be made up of quarks and gluons. Is there something more fundamental still?

Are neutrinos their own antiparticles?
Nobody knows this basic fact about neutrinos, although a number of underground experiments are under way. Answering this question may be a crucial step to understanding the origin of matter in the universe.

Is there a unified theory explaining all correlated electron systems?
High-temperature superconductors and materials with giant and colossal magnetoresistance are all governed by the collective rather than individual behavior of electrons. There is currently no common framework for understanding them.

What is the most powerful laser researchers can build?
Theorists say an intense enough laser field would rip photons into electron-positron pairs, dousing the beam. But no one knows whether it's possible to reach that point.

Can researchers make a perfect optical lens?
They've done it with microwaves but never with visible light.

Is it possible to create magnetic semiconductors that work at room temperature?
Such devices have been demonstrated at low temperatures but not yet in a range warm enough for spintronics applications.

What is the pairing mechanism behind high-temperature superconductivity?
Electrons in superconductors surf together in pairs. After 2 decades of intense study, no one knows what holds them together in the complex, high-temperature materials.

Can we develop a general theory of the dynamics of turbulent flows and the motion of granular materials?
So far, such "nonequilibrium systems" defy the tool kit of statistical mechanics, and the failure leaves a gaping hole in physics.

Are there stable high-atomic-number elements?
A superheavy element with 184 neutrons and 114 protons should be relatively stable, if physicists can create it.

Is superfluidity possible in a solid? If so, how?
Despite hints in solid helium, nobody is sure whether a crystalline material can flow without resistance. If new types of experiments show that such outlandish behavior is possible, theorists would have to explain how.

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