原题：Spotting the animal bugs that could shift to humans

　　Surveillance of at-risk populations for signs of animal-to-human disease transmission could prove crucial in preventing the next wave of pandemics, say disease experts.

　　疾病专家说，监测高危人群的人畜共患病传播的迹象可能在预防下一波疾病大流行方面具有关键作用。

　　Nathan Wolfe — a human biology professor at US-based Stanford University — and colleagues have established the Global Viral Forecasting Initiative (GVFI), which brings together specialists such as epidemiologists to identify bugs at their point of origin and monitor their spread into human populations. The initiative is currently around 100-strong, with members stationed at disease hotspots across the globe.

　　美国斯坦福大学的人类生物学教授Nathan Wolfe及其同事建立了全球病毒预报项目（GVFI），该项目集合了流行病学等领域的专家，从而在病原体起源地发现它们，并监测它们在人类中间的传播。该项目目前有100多人参与，还有分布在全球疾病热区的成员。

　　Populations vulnerable to infectious diseases from wild animals include those who work in live animal markets and rural villagers who hunt and butcher wild animals.

　　容易被来自野生动物的疾病感染的人群包括工作在活动物市场的人以及狩猎和宰杀野生动物的村民。

　　Ten years ago — when their surveillance vision was born — Wolfe and colleagues began studying viruses in Cameroonian hunters. They found several animal viruses previously unseen in humans, including new varieties of viruses that already affect millions of people worldwide and contribute to cancer and neurological disease.

　　10年前他们的监测项目诞生的时候，Wolfe 及其同事开始研究喀麦隆猎人身上的病毒。他们发现了几种此前未见于人类的动物病毒，包括已经影响着全世界数以百万计的人们、并且对癌症和神经疾病有贡献的病毒的新毒株。

　　But identifying a new bug is only the beginning. Other factors include whether it causes disease, its mode of transmission, whether it can spread from person to person and whether it has spread to urban areas — via blood transfusions, for example. The GVFI is developing diagnostic tests to check for the presence of viruses in the blood banks.

　　但是发现新病原体只是开始。其他因素包括它是否会致病、它的传播模式、它是否能在人与人之间传播以及它是否会传播到城市（例如通过输血）等等。GVFI正在开发诊断测试方法从而检查血库中病毒的存在。

　　The ultimate goal is to expand to more countries, including Brazil and Indonesia, but this is expensive — it is estimated that expansion would cost US$30 million, while maintenance would require another US$10 million a year.

　　最终目标是把该项目扩展到更多国家，包括巴西和印度尼西亚，但是这花费不菲——据估计，这种扩展将花费3000万美元，而每年维护还需要另外1000万美元。

　　But Wolfe says: "Even just mitigating [an epidemic] would justify the cost".

　　但是Wolfe 说：“即便是仅仅缓解[一场疾病流行]也能证明这笔支出是正当的”。

　　本文由科学与发展网络(SciDev.Net)独家提供。