原题：Debate erupts over effects of climate change on disease

　　The commonly-held view that climate change can only increase the burden of infectious diseases has been challenged — provoking a debate that could ripple out to health professionals, conservationists and policymakers.

　　气候变化只能增加传染病的负担，这一被人们普遍赞同的观点如今受到了挑战——这引起了一场可能波及卫生专业人士、环保人士和决策者的辩论。

　　In recent years thousands of papers have been published projecting that increased temperatures will extend the range of disease vectors, increasing the amount of disease.

　　近年来，科学家发表了数以千计的论文，预计温度的上升将扩大疾病传媒的范围，增加疾病的数量。

　　But now an ecologist argues that the effects of climate change will be more complex than has been acknowledged — and that there may even be a reduction in the incidence of some infectious diseases.

　　但是如今一位生态学家提出，气候变化的效应将比人们认识到的更复杂——而且甚至可能减少一些传染病的发病率。

　　Kevin Lafferty, a research ecologist for the United States Geological Survey at the University of California Santa Barbara, makes his argument in the April issue of Ecology. The journal has published five articles in response, representing the "extreme and contrasting views Lafferty's paper elicited in its reviewers," according to Kenneth Wilson of the UK-based Lancaster University, who has written a further, discussion article for the journal.

　　美国地质调查局在加州大学圣塔芭芭拉分校的研究生态学家Kevin Lafferty在4月出版的《生态学》杂志上提出了这个观点。该杂志已经发表了5篇回应的文章。英国兰开斯特大学的Kenneth Wilson说这些文章代表了“Lafferty的论文引发的评论者的极端和差别明显的观点”。Wilson为该杂志撰写了另外一篇讨论文章。

　　Lafferty's paper "looks set to spark another heated debate among ecologists" and further afield "because of the funding implications and political fallout that might be generated by questioning the association between climate change and infectious diseases," says Wilson.

　　Lafferty的论文“看上去引发了生态学家之间的另一个激烈的辩论”而且扩散到了其他领域，“这是由于质疑气候变化和传染病之间的关系可能影响资助和带来政治后果，”Wilson说。

　　In his paper, Lafferty argues that temperature increases due to climate change are just one factor among many socioeconomic and environmental influences affecting diseases. Climate change is more likely to shift, than expand, the range of disease-causing bugs — and some areas might experience a decrease in disease, he writes. The discipline of ecology is essential for untangling these complexities.

　　Lafferty在他的论文中认为由于气候变化导致的升温只是影响疾病的许多社会经济和环境影响因素之一。他写道，气候变化更可能改变而非扩展致病虫子的范围——而且一些地区可能遇到疾病减少。生态学对于解开这些复杂性至关重要。

　　"[The effect of climate change] might be relatively minor, particularly in many human infectious diseases where other factors such as economics are known to play a large role," he told SciDev.Net.

　　“[气候变化的效应]可能相对较少，特别是在许多人类传染病方面，已知经济等其他因素在这些传染疾上扮演的角色更重要。”他告诉本网站说。

　　Higher-latitude, richer nations have the resources to control and treat malaria, for example, so just because their environment becomes more suitable for mosquitoes doesn't necessarily mean an increase in the number of malaria infections.

　　例如，高纬度的富国有控制和治疗疟疾的资源，因此由于它们的环境变得更适合蚊子并不必然意味着疟疾感染数量的增加。

　　Factors such as day length — a seasonal rather than climatic factor — can affect rates of disease transmission, while precipitation can play a complex role in changing habitats for disease vectors. Human action such as land-use change and disease control methods also impact on the number of cases.

　　昼长（这是一个季节而非气候因素）等因素可能影响疾病传播率，而降雨量可以在改变疾病传媒的栖息地方面扮演一个复杂的角色。诸如土地使用改变等人类活动和疾病控制手段也会影响病例数量。

　　Lafferty says that simple summaries of the topic often conclude with a one-directional outcome: that infectious disease is going to increase in general.Lafferty说，对该问题的简单总结常常得出一个单向的结果，即传染病在总体上将增加。"In no way am I saying we shouldn't be studying this issue, what I'm interested in doing is laying out a framework through which we can study it more effectively," he says. "I think we ought to be worried by overemphasising climate at the expense of other really important effects that we can do things about, like economics."

　　“我绝不是说我们不应该研究这个问题，我感兴趣的是建立一个框架，从而让我们可以更有效地研究它，”他说，“我认为我们应该对过分强调气候而忽视了其他我们可以改变的真正重要的效应——例如经济——感到担忧。”

　　But in a response paper, Mercedes Pascual of the University of Michigan, United States, and Menno Bouma of the UK-based University of London, argue that even if the geographical range of, for example, malaria-carrying mosquitoes does not increase, it may extend into more populated and vulnerable areas. Populations in malarial countries tend to concentrate at low-risk, higher altitudes, they say, so the shifting of malaria uphill could increase the number of cases.

　　但是美国密歇根大学的Mercedes Pascual和英国伦敦大学的Menno Bouma在一篇回应的论文中指出，例如，即便携带疟疾的蚊子活动的地理范围没有增加，它可能延伸到人口更密集和脆弱的地区。他们说，疟疾流行国家的人口通常集中在低风险、高海拔的地区，因此疟疾向海拔更高的地方转移可能增加病例数量。

　　Pascual and Bouma are also concerned that Lafferty's conclusions could be interpreted as meaning that climate change does not play a role in changing the patterns of infectious diseases.

　　Pascual 和Bouma还担心Lafferty的结论可能被解释为意味着气候变化在改变传染病模式方面没有扮演一个角色。

　　And some authors point out that there is already compelling evidence that climate change has increased some human diseases and caused dramatic disease outbreaks in amphibians, shellfish and corals.

　　还有一些作者指出，已经有令人信服的证据表明气候变化增加了一些人类疾病，并导致了两栖类、甲壳类和珊瑚的引人注目的疾病暴发。

　　But Sarah Randolph of Oxford University, United Kingdom, writes in her Ecology paper that "exaggerated simplistic rhetoric" about climate change's role "is morally indefensible if it distracts public health agencies from more effective ameliorative action targeted at the real causes".

　　但是英国牛津大学的Sarah Randolph在她发表在《生态学》杂志的论文中写道，如果关于气候变化作用的“夸大得过于简化的修辞”扰乱了公共卫生机构采取针对真正原因的更有效的改善<a href="http://scitech.people.com.cn/GB/53752/53785/index.html" target="_blank"><font color="#0000FF">行</font></a>动，那么在道义上无法为其辩护。

　　本文由科学与发展网络(SciDev.Net)独家提供。